This is a big topic today. We need to understand what's going on and its ramifications. We don't really even know for sure what's going on with the level of employment and job creation (see this post and sources cited therein). If we wrongly jump to the conclusion that this is still a jobless recovery and then further assume that outsourcing is at fault and is a bad thing, we may make serious policy errors. Here are some of the things I've read recently on this:
"
In age of outsourcing, do the old rules apply? Most experts say globalization's benefits outweigh the costs, but some see altered equations," by David R. Francis for The Christian Science Monitor, covers some controversy among economists:
Most economists support freer trade, international investment, and a freer labor market - all enablers of offshore outsourcing. Though it may cause short-term job loss and other disruptions, the long-term effect is to raise living standards, they say.
But a few economists charge that economists' old trade theory no longer applies.
He also talks about dramatic shifts in public opinion, as "America's white-collar work force is experiencing the kind of vulnerability once felt mainly on assembly lines." Opinions clearly depend on "whose ox is being gored": "Only 28 percent of those making more than $100,000 a year support active promotion of free trade, down from 57 percent in 1999."
Francis points out that "the rising debate could have far-reaching policy implications - possibly slowing the trend toward globalization that many credit with raising living standards worldwide in recent years. Now, even if the outsourcing threat is overblown, it could help put the brakes on globalization."
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Another good article in the Monitor, by staff writer Stacy A. Teicher, covers some of the difficulties American companies are discovering as they try sending service and technology work abroad. In "
A not so simple path," she writes that although programmers in India work for one-tenth the salary of programmers here, "labor-cost savings aren't the only factor firms need to consider before jumping on the outsourcing bandwagon." Giving a series of specific examples of "stories of outsourcing gone wrong," she says many companies "still wonder if the benefits surpass the risks." The article says: "Studies suggest that more than half of outsourcing contracts haven't delivered their projected cost savings, but once companies refine their strategies, they can expect to save 20 to 40 percent."
The article concludes with an opinion that "we're headed toward more global equality in technology wages, [that] IT professionals have to accept that their trade is becoming more like an average trade," [and] [i]f salaries hadn't gotten so overheated in the 1990s, . . . it wouldn't be worthwhile to outsource."
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The savings figures above indicate much smaller savings than the labor-cost differential alone would suggest. It would not take too many years of wage convergance to neutralize 20%-40% savings. I have read elsewhere that the relevant wages in India have been rising 10% a year.
In a similar vein, CNN/Money reports:
"Study notes offshoring downside; As firms move jobs overseas to cut labor costs, they could be incurring new costs, firm says."
Issues discussed include tax consequences, supply chain costs, and the expense of shutting down U.S. facilities.
An interesting point, offered without factual support, is that "[s]tatistically speaking, offshoring has not been a major factor in the U.S. labor market's prolonged slump, the longest since 1939."
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So if that slump is itself overstated (due to difficulties with our statistics), then the overall impact of this phenomenon may be much less significant than the alarmists would have us believe. Knowing the truth is vital to current political debate.
Friday, one of my favorite columnists, Thomas Friedman, wrote this from Bangalore, India:
"Turbulent global change, version 3.0"
Friedman says: "having now spent 10 days in Bangalore, India's Silicon Valley, I realize that while I was sleeping, the world entered the third great era of globalization." He concludes:
So now I wonder: When they write the history of the world 20 years from now, and they come to this chapter - Sept. 11, 2001, to March 2004 - what will they say was most important? The attack on the World Trade Center and the Iraq war? Or . . . the convergence of PCs, telecom and work-flow software that allowed India to become part of the global supply chain for services the way China had become for manufacturing - creating an explosion of wealth in the middle classes of the world's two biggest nations and giving both nations a huge new stake in the success of globalization?
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Indeed, IMHO we are acting like piggish spoiled Americans if we are unable to see the silver lining of this cloud. And I'm sure we'll be seen that way around the world as we whine and whine about outsourcing.
China and India are huge nations and nuclear powers, with unbelievably huge populations of unbelievably poor people. India is a democracy which shares with us some remnants of the British colonial experience. Is there not great good in our becoming increasingly tied to these countries economically?
There are those who attribute peace in Europe finally being achieved post WWII to the economic interdependence of the Common Market approach. Do not the rapidly growing economic ties between the US, China, and India have the potential of similarly enhancing world peace and stability?
What about the humanitarian benefit of improved living conditions in these countries?
What about the economic benefits to us of increased consumerism there?
On the last point, there was some very heartening news about how my home state of Missouri is benefiting nicely from trade with China. Eric Heisler wrote in a cover story in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:
"Chinese buy more goods from Missouri"
China imported $260.2 million of Missouri-made goods last year, leapfrogging past Germany, Italy and others as a major market for the state's products. That mark also doubled the value of Missouri goods sold to China in 2002 . . . .
Tapping into a fast-growing economy with 1.3 billion people benefits a diverse list of Missouri companies, from a major chemical maker in St. Louis to a small producer of sewage-treatment components in Columbia [MO] . . . .
"In China, they like American goods and they love American quality," said Randall LaBounty, director of the U.S. Export Assistance Center office in St. Louis. "As the Chinese get more income, they're just going to buy more from around the world, and that includes the United States."
Many of the Missouri products are ones that China largely didn't need before massive economic and social changes began to sweep the nation over the past decade. For instance, as its rural regions develop, China is quickly building sewage treatment plants. That means it needs the type of parts made by Environmental Dynamics Inc. of Columbia, Mo. . . .
"It's just a huge, untapped economy," said James Wareham, vice president of international sales and operations for St. Louis-based Sigma-Aldrich Corp.
Until the past five years, Sigma-Aldrich barely sold its products to China. Now, the nation has become one of the top markets for the company's research chemicals. . . . China moved onto Sigma-Aldrich's radar screen as more U.S. companies moved their research arms there to take advantage of lower-cost labor. That's meant an increase in demand for Sigma-Aldrich's products, many of which are made at its five St. Louis-area plants, Wareham said.
"There's lots of Chinese researchers who were educated abroad and are returning to China for work," he said. "They're familiar with our brand and our quality, so they use our products." . . .
When U.S. companies invest in China, they still tend to buy some U.S.-made supplies, LaBounty said. "That's just how companies work. They like to buy supplies from the sources they're used to." . . . .
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Finally, two pieces about specific white-collar outsourcing, one close to home for me (professionally, not geographically):
"Law firm cuts rates by outsourcing to India"
"Reuters' Offshore "Experiment"; why the news service is hiring reporters in Bangalore to cover U.S. companies"
Continued . . .